The definition of a secret is breaking down. Once the domain of shadows and whispers, state-sponsored sabotage and regime change have migrated to the daily headlines, creating a confusing new reality where spies operate in the open while governments officially look the other way.
Nowhere is this shift more visible than in the United States’ current campaign against Venezuela. The operations recall the aggressive posture of the Cold War, yet they lack the era’s discretion. President Donald Trump has publicly signaled his authorization of Central Intelligence Agency activities to oust the Maduro regime, turning what was once a clandestine undertaking into a tool of overt geopolitical signaling.
The Paradox of Open Secrets
This creates a paradox. If a covert operation leads the nightly news, common logic suggests it has failed. But Rory Cormac, a professor of international relations at the University of Nottingham, argues that modern statecraft often relies on “unacknowledged interference” rather than true silence. States are calibrating their secrecy levels to send messages to adversaries while maintaining just enough distance to avoid open war.
Context
The concept of plausible deniability has become a diplomatic fiction. Cormac pointed to the “nudge and a wink” diplomacy of recent years, such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gifting Trump a gold-plated pager—a dark nod to the exploding devices used against Hezbollah. The ambiguity is the weapon. It allows leaders to project power without technically admitting to an act of war.
The Disinformation Trap
But this gray zone carries risks for Western democracies. There is a growing tendency to see a Russian hand behind every railway fire or piece of disinformation. Cormac said that assuming Moscow is behind every disruption inadvertently bolsters Vladimir Putin’s image. It paints a picture of a “grand chess master” playing four-dimensional strategy, often obscuring the reality of a much more limited capability.
“Paranoia does the disinformer’s job for them.”
— Rory Cormac, Professor of International Relations
History suggests the “golden age” of plausible deniability was always a myth. Operations like the 1953 coup in Iran or the 1954 overthrow of Jacobo Árbenz in Guatemala were widely reported in real-time. While often viewed by policymakers as tactical successes, they frequently resulted in strategic blowback that haunted Western interests for decades. The CIA-backed removal of leaders often swapped a short-term headache for a long-term hostile regime.
The Seduction of Intelligence
Leaders today face a seduction. When diplomacy fails and conventional war is too costly, a call to intelligence agencies offers a tempting middle ground. But viewing these operations as a “silver bullet” ignores the historical record of failure.
“Don’t just phone up the CIA.”
— Rory Cormac
The allure of the secret option remains potent, but the veil has been lifted. In 2026, the sharpest edge of covert action is the one everybody knows about, but nobody admits.