A new U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the Trump administration has triggered alarm across European capitals, threatening to fracture the transatlantic alliance just as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine appear to be collapsing.
In a departure from decades of American foreign policy, the document de-prioritizes Russia as a primary threat and explicitly criticizes the socio-political trajectory of European allies. The strategy has been described as a potential death knell for the current iteration of the NATO alliance, according to analysis presented in the latest episode of “State of Play,” a podcast by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
A “Civilizational” Attack on Europe
The new strategy goes beyond demanding increased defense spending—a staple of the first Trump term—and attacks the ideological foundations of modern Europe. According to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS, the NSS warns of “civilizational erasure” in Europe caused by migration and progressive social policies.
Most concerning to diplomats is language within the document that calls for the U.S. to intervene in the domestic affairs of allied nations.
“What it calls for is… ‘cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations,’” Bergmann said. “That is a call for political interference in European politics… on behalf of the parties and movements that are essentially the far-right nationalist parties in Europe.”
The rhetorical shift has been accompanied by harsh diplomatic language. Will Todman, the podcast host and CSIS fellow, noted that the U.S. Ambassador to NATO recently questioned the continent’s relevance at the Doha Forum, asking: “Is Europe a dynamic economy that can grow, or is it just a museum that’s a relic of the past?”
Diplomacy with Moscow Stalls
The release of the strategy comes amidst a failed flurry of diplomacy regarding Ukraine. Despite a “20-point plan” floated by the U.S. administration and high-level meetings in Florida, negotiations have hit a wall. Experts argue the administration miscalculated Putin’s willingness to settle.
“The Trump administration’s bet… was that this was really about territory,” Bergmann explained. The assumption was that pressure on Kyiv combined with economic incentives for Moscow would yield a deal. Instead, Russia appears uninterested in stopping the war.
Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at CSIS, emphasized that the Kremlin views the conflict as existential rather than territorial. “This war is not about territory for Putin,” Snegovaya said. “The ultimate goal is to subordinate Ukraine one way or another.”
Snegovaya warned that the Kremlin feels “emboldened” by the perceived weakness in the West. She noted that Moscow has interpreted the new U.S. strategy as a validation of its long-held belief that the “Western alliance will eventually crumble.”
Europe’s “Bend the Knee” Strategy Fails
For European leaders, who largely attempted to placate the incoming administration through increased defense spending and trade concessions, the new NSS represents a strategic failure.
“The bending the knee strategy… didn’t quite work,” Bergmann noted. “It indicates to the Europeans that the kind of bending the knee strategy to Trump… may have worked a bit on the president, but this is not the first term.”
The experts suggest that Europe is now facing a “divorce” from its security guarantor, forcing a difficult choice: immediate integration of European defense and capital markets to achieve strategic autonomy, or a slide into geopolitical irrelevance.
While Ukraine remains under “enormous pressure” from Washington to make concessions, the reality on the ground suggests the war will grind on. Snegovaya cautioned that even a signed deal might not bring peace.
“Even a settlement achieved on paper will not be the end of this war,” she said, predicting that without firm security guarantees, Putin would likely use any pause to regroup for future attacks.