As the United States recalibrates its focus on the Western Hemisphere, leading analysts at Geopolitical Futures suggest that while Venezuela poses a tactical challenge, Cuba remains the primary geographic vulnerability for Washington. In a recent “ClubGPF” live discussion held on November 20, 2025, George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, and analyst Andrew Davidson dissected the evolving security architecture of Latin America.
The discussion highlighted a divergence between geographic strategic value and current military readiness. Friedman emphasized that despite Havana’s waning hard power, the island’s location remains critical to U.S. security interests.
“Cuba’s geographic position is much more dangerous to us because of that choke point in the Florida Straits,” Friedman stated. He contrasted this with Caracas, noting that “Venezuela doesn’t pose that sort of threat anywhere,” though he conceded that any potential occupation of the South American nation would be complicated by “mountains, jungles, everything that you don’t want to fight on.”
However, regarding conventional military strength, the balance of power has shifted. Andrew Davidson, a Geopolitical Futures analyst and Army veteran, noted that Cuba’s armed forces have suffered severe attrition.
“Cuba’s military is only about 45,000 strong… due to the last couple of decades, their naval fleet has degraded to a non-operational state,” Davidson said. He argued that in a direct comparison of military assets, “Venezuela is more of a threat due to the platforms and access to alternative funding sources through Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia.”
Foreign Influence and Drone Warfare
The panel addressed reports of Iranian involvement in the region, specifically allegations of Iranian forces training Venezuelan personnel. Davidson confirmed the presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to assist in standing up drone capabilities but clarified the limitations of this threat.
“They are primarily Mohajer models, which are more reconnaissance drones, although they do have short-range loitering drone capabilities,” Davidson explained. He added that Iran currently lacks the logistical supply chain to support a “technical push” in the region fully.
Friedman warned that the true red line for Washington would be the introduction of significant foreign weaponry. “We do face a potential problem if the Russians were to put weapons there,” Friedman said, adding that inviting Iranian trainers is a perilous political calculation for Caracas because “that’ll bring a response from the United States.”
The Economic Rise of the Southern Cone
Beyond security concerns, Friedman offered a bullish forecast for the economic trajectory of the Southern Cone, specifically citing Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. He drew historical parallels to the unexpected economic ascendance of the United States in the late 19th century and Japan and China in the 20th century.
“Since having a dynamic, low-cost, rapidly growing economy has become one of the fundamental features… of economics for the past century… we would expect it to happen somewhere,” Friedman observed.
He dismissed skepticism regarding the region’s potential, stating that looking at the southern part of Latin America as a future economic powerhouse might seem unlikely to some, but “the idea that this third world country of peasants, the United States, could evolve into a major economic power was laughable” in the past.
Navigating Great Power Competition
The discussion concluded with an analysis of how Latin American nations are navigating the rivalry between the United States and China. Davidson pointed to the strategic “balancing act” employed by nations like Brazil to maintain sovereignty while modernizing their forces.
“It’s imperative for South American countries to not be solely reliant on the U.S., they need autonomy,” Davidson said. He noted that Brazil illustrates this complex diplomacy by “inviting both the U.S. and Chinese marines” for training operations, ensuring that neither superpower gains exclusive leverage in the region.