In a stark assessment of the current political landscape, former National Security Adviser John Bolton stated that President Donald Trump is now on a “downhill slope” regarding his political influence, suggesting that the President’s ability to intimidate his own party has fractured following the 2025 elections.
Speaking in an interview with The Economist released this week, Mr. Bolton, a fierce critic of the President since leaving the first administration, argued that while Mr. Trump remains an erratic force, his stranglehold on the Republican apparatus is loosening.
Discussion regarding the President’s status as a “lame duck” was central to the conversation with The Economist’s geopolitics editor, David Rennie. When asked if poor midterm performances might chasten the President, Mr. Bolton dismissed the idea that Mr. Trump would ever pivot to conventional governance.
“Trump is never going to be normal. He is an aberration,” Mr. Bolton said. However, he noted that the “diminution of Trump’s power, the loss of his ability to intimidate Republicans has already begun with the results of the 2025 election.”
Mr. Bolton pointed to specific domestic setbacks as evidence of this decline, citing a rejection by Republican Senators of the President’s call to end the filibuster, opposition to mid-cycle redistricting efforts, and what he termed a “revolt by the MAGA base itself on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.”
“I think we’re at the point where Trump is now on the downhill slope,” Mr. Bolton observed. “It’s a little bit like the Wizard of Oz, you pull the curtain back and suddenly everybody’s operating in a different world.”
The interview also touched upon the potential dangers of a second-term presidency unmoored by electoral consequences. While Mr. Rennie suggested that lame-duck presidents often turn to foreign policy to project power, Mr. Bolton warned that the President’s focus might turn inward toward vanity projects, such as “building his ballroom” or “putting more gold filigree up in the White House.”
Nevertheless, regarding international relations, Mr. Bolton offered a grim forecast for the remainder of the term. “Trump’s erratic behavior in international affairs has been demonstrated for five years, it won’t change in the last three years no matter what. That’s a danger,” he said.
The conversation took a somber turn when addressing the state of American institutions. Mr. Rennie noted the “politicization of the justice system” and acknowledged that Mr. Bolton himself has been indicted on charges regarding the handling of classified information—charges Mr. Bolton denies. When asked about the fear pervading Washington and the risk of “creeping authoritarianism,” Mr. Bolton argued that the President lacks the discipline for true tyranny.
“Donald Trump doesn’t have the mental wherewithal to be an authoritarian. This is about what Donald Trump wants to do,” Mr. Bolton stated, characterizing the administration as a “retribution presidency.”
Despite his criticisms, Mr. Bolton cautioned foreign allies against preparing for a post-American world. He specifically warned European leaders not to seek total independence from Washington based solely on the current administration.
“The worst thing that our foreign friends could do is assume that the US will behave like Trump forever,” Mr. Bolton concluded. “I would never bet against America.”