China has concluded 2025 with one of its largest displays of military might to date, encircling Taiwan in a move described by Beijing as a “stern warning” against separatist forces. The escalation comes amidst record US arms sales to the self-ruled island and growing speculation regarding President Xi Jinping’s timeline for unification.
In a recent episode of the BBC World Service’s Asia Pacific podcast, host Mariko Oi convened experts to unpack the significance of these latest maneuvers, which increasingly resemble practice runs for a total blockade.
While military exercises in the Taiwan Strait have become almost routine since 2022—a phenomenon the BBC described as feeling like “Groundhog Day”—analysts warn that the specific nature of the late-2025 drills signals a shift in Beijing’s strategy. For the first time, the exercises were publicly associated with the specific deterrence of “outside military intervention,” a pointed message directed at Washington and Tokyo.
“That being so explicitly described and also laid out in the readout is definitely something unusual compared to similar exercises in the past.”
— William Yang, Senior Northeast Asia Analyst, Crisis Group
This shift coincides with heightened regional tensions, fueled in part by comments from Japanese leadership regarding the potential involvement of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces in a Taiwan contingency.
Personal Attacks and “Green Bugs”
Beyond the kinetic displays of warships and aircraft, Beijing has intensified its psychological and propaganda warfare against Taiwan’s President William Lai. Since his inauguration in 2024, the Chinese Communist Party has refused to engage with his administration, escalating its rhetoric to what observers call dangerous levels.
Bill Birtles, a former Beijing and Taipei correspondent, highlighted the use of “dehumanizing language” by Chinese state media. He pointed to a series of cartoons released by the Chinese military depicting President Lai as a “parasite” or a worm.
“There once again has been a reference to green bugs. The messaging was clear that they are going to really put pressure on him, his party, and the side of Taiwan that doesn’t advocate for the island becoming its own independent sovereign nation but takes the stance that we basically already are.”
— Bill Birtles, former Beijing and Taipei correspondent
Context
The term “green bugs” refers to the color associated with Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which maintains that Taiwan already functions as a sovereign nation and resists unification with mainland China.