A newly released United States National Security Strategy (NSS) marks a fundamental departure from decades of transatlantic foreign policy, signaling a White House preference for a weaker European Union, according to an analysis by Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.
In a video assessment released Monday, Bremmer described the document as “dramatically different” from those of previous administrations, highlighting a strategic pivot that places unprecedented pressure on the United States’ traditional allies.
According to Bremmer, the central divergence in the strategy is the administration’s view of the European Union. While the Biden administration and its predecessors viewed the NATO alliance and a unified Europe as a geopolitical asset, the current White House views a coordinated Brussels as an economic and regulatory rival.
“President Trump, unlike Biden and unlike other previous presidents, believes that a strong Europe is not in US interest, particularly a strong coordinated Europe,” Bremmer said. “He does not like the European Union.”
Bremmer noted that the administration’s friction with the bloc stems from the EU’s collective ability to leverage its market size against American interests. “Together the Europeans are the size of the United States at least in terms of trade and regulatory capabilities,” Bremmer explained.
The analysis pointed to a statistical anomaly in the document that underscores this shift in focus: Europe is mentioned “twice as much as China” in the text. Furthermore, the strategy’s release has garnered a positive reception from Moscow. Bremmer noted that the Kremlin has publicly stated they are “aligned” with the new US strategy, a development he suggested “should make you have reason to think that there might be some challenges with it.”
The NSS reportedly references “civilizational decay” in Europe, a sentiment that Bremmer acknowledged is mirrored by some European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and officials in Italy and Germany, particularly regarding migration issues. However, Bremmer argued that while European leaders recognize their economic stagnation, their proposed solutions differ vastly from Washington’s desires.
While the Trump administration believes “exit from Europe and certainly a weaker European Union would be in American interests,” European leadership is doubling down on integration. Bremmer cited the “Draghi plan” and efforts to reduce bureaucracy as evidence that the continent intends to become “stronger, not weaker” to compete globally.
The rift is having immediate consequences for the war in Ukraine. With US funding drying up, Bremmer noted that “the Europeans are paying for almost all of it.” He argued that this financial burden gives European capitals “veto power” over potential outcomes in the conflict, regardless of Washington’s diplomatic posture toward Vladimir Putin.
Bremmer also offered insight into the personnel driving this policy shift, suggesting that the ideological framework is being shaped by Vice President J.D. Vance and advisor Stephen Miller, rather than Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The coming months will serve as a critical test for transatlantic relations, according to the analysis. Bremmer warned that while European nations have moved with urgency on Ukraine, they have not yet fully adjusted to a reality where Washington acts as an adversary.
“The Europeans have not yet seen the United States as a principal threat or principal adversary,” Bremmer concluded. “That is changing.”