The United States’ strategic pivot toward the Western Hemisphere and away from traditional entanglements in Europe represents a rational return to historical norms rather than an erratic abandonment of global responsibilities, according to George Friedman, Founder and Chairman of Geopolitical Futures.
In a recent appearance on the Talking Geopolitics podcast, Friedman analyzed the geopolitical logic behind the new U.S. National Security Strategy, which emphasizes “America First” principles and a renewed focus on regional stability in the Americas. While critics have viewed the strategy as a retreat, Friedman argued that the foreign policy framework of the last century is no longer applicable to modern realities.
“It’s not irrational. It just breaks the norms. But the norm was obsolete,” Friedman stated.
Friedman contended that the geopolitical drivers that necessitated deep American involvement in the Eastern Hemisphere—specifically the World Wars and the Cold War—have dissipated. “What has changed is the threat of communism is gone,” he said. Furthermore, he noted that the war in Ukraine demonstrated that “Russia is not the threat it was,” having been held back by a smaller neighbor, and that “Europe is not the shattered continent that it was.”
Continuity in Foreign Policy
Friedman observed that despite political polarization, there has been a consistent drift in U.S. foreign policy across administrations. He pointed to the refusal of the Biden administration to deploy combat troops to Ukraine as a precursor to the current strategy.
“Even under the Biden administration, we did not send troops to Ukraine. We sent weapons,” Friedman said. “This was one of the first times that the Russians had acted militarily that the United States did not send troops.”
According to Friedman, the shift reflects a realization that the U.S. is no longer required to manage the stability of the Eastern Hemisphere to ensure its own survival. He described the 20th-century American interventionism as an anomaly in the nation’s history, driven by necessity rather than preference.
“In the 20th century, we fought three European wars: the First World War, the Second World War, and the Cold War,” Friedman explained. “That was not in the nature of the United States, it was something that had to be done. But it no longer has to be done.”
A Modern Monroe Doctrine
The analyst described the current strategic posture as a modernized version of the Monroe Doctrine, reasserting the primacy of the Western Hemisphere in U.S. security calculations. The strategy relies on the geographic security provided by the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, allowing the U.S. to focus on its immediate neighborhood.
“We have a fundamental interest in the Western Hemisphere and a minimal interest in the Eastern Hemisphere unless it goes berserk,” Friedman noted.
This recalibration places a heavy emphasis on Latin America, which Friedman identified as a region of significant economic potential, specifically highlighting the evolution of Brazil and Argentina. However, he noted that security concerns remain, particularly regarding the influence of external powers.
“Venezuela, linked to Russia very closely… and to Cuba very closely, is the odd man out in Latin America,” Friedman warned. He suggested that U.S. actions in the region are intended to mitigate threats from drug cartels and foreign influence, thereby “clearing the ground for a more prosperous Western Hemisphere.”
European Defense
The strategic shift inevitably places more responsibility on European nations for their own defense, a move Friedman characterizes as long overdue. He critiqued the post-Cold War dynamic where the U.S. effectively subsidized European security.
From the American perspective, Friedman argued, the current relationship involves “a very prosperous Europe using the claim that it cannot defend itself to avoid defense spending.”
Ultimately, Friedman suggests the new strategy is an attempt to stabilize relationships with major powers like China and Russia while securing the U.S. homeland. “The American strategy is to reach an understanding both with Russia and with China… and to focus ourselves on the Western Hemisphere’s evolution.”