In a sweeping review of the geopolitical landscape following the first year of the second Trump administration, leading foreign policy experts describe 2025 as a “transformative year” defined by the collapse of global free trade norms and a radical shift toward transactional diplomacy.
In a special episode of the State of Play podcast released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analysts argued that the United States has decisively pivoted away from its traditional role as the guarantor of a liberal international order, leaving allies scrambling to adapt to an “America First” reality that prioritizes commercial gain over shared democratic values.
The discussion, hosted by Will Todman of the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, featured Victor Cha, the department’s president, and Dr. Thomas Wright of the Brookings Institution. The panel painted a picture of a world where economic warfare has become normalized and strategic competition has been redefined.
The End of an Economic Era
Dr. Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, highlighted the administration’s trade policy as the most fundamental shift of the year. He noted that upon taking office in January 2025, the average U.S. global tariff rate was approximately 2.3 percent. By the year’s end, that figure had skyrocketed.
“As of I think about four weeks ago, it was 17.9 percent,” Wright stated. “They did that, I think, without significant retaliation from other countries… that does feel like the end of a moment where we did have, if not perfectly free trade, at least sort of an open global economy.”
Transactionalism Over Values
Victor Cha argued that the diplomatic compass of the United States has shifted from maintaining alliances based on principles to securing financial advantages. He suggested that Washington now views foreign relations through a strictly commercial lens.
“There has been a change in the U.S. in terms of thinking about not about friends and allies, but thinking about, to be crude, making money,” Cha said.
Cha illustrated this shift by referencing the administration’s stance on Taiwan. He noted that the justification for U.S. support has moved away from the defense of democracy and toward the protection of economic assets, specifically semiconductor supply chains. Under this new paradigm, Cha observed that interactions with foreign nations are “determined largely by a transaction, a profit maximization transaction, as opposed to a value, a common value or a principle.”
Allies “Bending the Knee”
Despite the aggressive shift in U.S. policy, the experts noted a surprising level of accommodation from traditional allies in Europe and Asia. Wright expressed surprise at the lack of pushback, attributing it to the fact that most allies “don’t really have a plan B.”
Cha agreed, describing a dynamic where allied leaders have engaged in “bending the knee” to President Trump, offering “made-for-TV summit deliverables” and engaging in personal flattery to preserve the security architecture they rely on.
“They are trying to buy time, manage the problems, and basically get as much of a U.S. commitment as they can,” Wright noted, though he warned that this strategy might not be sustainable through the remainder of the presidential term.
A New Definition of Security
The panelists also discussed how the administration has redefined national security priorities, focusing heavily on the Western Hemisphere and economic competition while seemingly deprioritizing traditional security alliances in Europe and Asia.
While President Trump is widely viewed as an economic hawk regarding China, Wright questioned the extent of his commitment to security competition. He suggested the administration is more focused on the trade deficit than geopolitical containment.
“He’s always been more bothered by America’s allies than by his adversaries because he’s worried about trade and security commitments,” Wright said regarding the President’s worldview.
The “Trump Doctrine”
In attempting to summarize the administration’s approach after one year, Cha offered a concise definition of the emerging doctrine governing U.S. foreign policy.
“Strategically predictable, but tactically unpredictable,” Cha said. He explained that while the President’s long-held views on trade and burden-sharing are well-known and consistent, the specific actions taken to achieve those ends remain volatile.
As the world looks toward 2026, the experts warned that the “fracturing of the West” may be the year’s most significant legacy, with the United States voluntarily dismantling the alliance system that had long served as its core strategic advantage.