As Ukraine battles to repair an energy infrastructure shattered by Russian missile strikes, experts are warning that a return to the pre-war status quo is impossible. Facing the dual challenges of physical destruction and a shifting global security landscape, analysts from the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) argue that Kyiv must abandon decades of “energy populism” to build a resilient system capable of surviving in an era of artificial intelligence and high-intensity warfare.
In a recent discussion released by the think tank, Andrian Prokip, the UIF’s Energy Program Director, and Executive Director Anatoliy Amelin dissected the structural collapse of Ukraine’s power grid and outlined a vision for 2035.
The End of the “Green Tank” Illusion
Before the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s energy sector was already facing a crisis of obsolescence. “The Ukrainian energy sector was technologically obsolete and physically worn out,” Prokip stated, noting that the only new assets built in recent decades were in renewables, largely due to “green tariff” incentives.
However, the war has forced a brutal reality check, not just for Ukraine, but for the global energy transition. Prokip highlighted that the conflict has shifted priorities from decarbonization to immediate security and survivability.
“You don’t have this tank that runs on firewood,” Prokip said, illustrating the impossibility of fighting a modern war solely on renewable resources. “There are tanks that run on diesel.”
This shift is mirrored globally. The expert noted that the “green agenda” is being recalibrated by geopolitical threats and the ravenous energy demands of the booming AI sector. With the United States delaying the closure of coal plants and China rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities, the world is entering an era where technology and regional security compete directly with climate goals.
Devastating Losses and the Hydrogen Delusion
The physical toll on Ukraine’s grid has been catastrophic. According to the UIF, Ukraine has lost approximately 67% of its wind generation capacity, primarily located in the occupied southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant removed a massive baseload source from the grid.
While European strategies previously positioned Ukraine as a potential hydrogen hub, Prokip is skeptical about near-term implementation. “Hydrogen was tripped up,” he explained, noting that European plans for 2035 are likely to be only partially fulfilled due to a lack of economic stimulus.
Furthermore, the expert cautioned against relying on energy exports as a silver bullet, citing the protectionist measures taken by neighbors like Poland regarding Ukrainian grain. “The world is arranged somewhat differently… our neighbors have their own vision and interests,” Prokip noted.
The Populism Trap
The discussion identified domestic policy as perhaps a greater threat to Ukraine’s energy future than external factors. For decades, Ukrainian governments have subsidized energy prices for the population to secure electoral votes, a practice Amelin and Prokip argue has starved the sector of investment.
“A lot of problems are in the heads,” Prokip said regarding the public expectation of cheap energy. He warned that as long as energy pricing “becomes an instrument for political struggle,” strategic investors will avoid the Ukrainian market.
“If foreign companies enter, they will force [the government] to reckon with them and will not allow rules to be changed every time to suit political expediency,” Prokip added, advocating for the entry of global energy majors to stabilize the market rules.
A Vision for 2035
Looking toward 2035, the experts envision a radical transformation. Prokip predicts that Ukraine will likely be forced to exit coal generation entirely, not just due to green commitments, but because thermal power plants are being systematically destroyed by Russian bombardment.
The future mix, according to the discussion, relies on preserving Ukraine’s nuclear potential—possibly through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)—and leveraging the country’s vast territory for decentralized renewable generation. There is also a potential niche for Ukraine to become a hub for data centers, capitalizing on the global AI boom, provided it can offer secure and sufficient power.
However, realizing this potential requires a shift in governance. Amelin suggested that the state might need to look toward privatizing or listing huge state-owned enterprises like Energoatom or Naftogaz to ensure transparency and capital inflow.
“We need big players in the oil and gas extraction sector… we need big players in the nuclear generation sector,” Amelin argued.
Without transparent rules and a departure from Soviet-era paternalism regarding utility costs, the experts warn that Ukraine risks missing the window to modernize, leaving its economy uncompetitive in a rapidly rearming world.
“War changed energy, the American administration changed energy,” Prokip summarized. “Now the race for artificial intelligence… is changing everything.”